National Retail Federation Predicts 4% Gain in Holiday Sales
Although they plan to spend more on the holidays this year than they did last year, U.S. shoppers say their spending will be a bit restrained this holiday season. In fact, consumers plan to spend an average of $923.36 on holiday-related shopping—including $106.67 on purchases to treat themselves, according to the 2007 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch L.L.C. (Worthington, Ohio) on behalf of the National Retail Federation (Washington).
That means total planned holiday-related spending will increase 3.7 percent over 2006—the slowest growth in holiday sales since 2002, when sales rose just 1.3 percent.
“Shoppers will be a little more conservative with their spending as they become more aware of the softness in the economy,” said Tracy Mullin, president and chief executive officer of the NRF. “It is safe to say that many retailers will be competing on price, causing this holiday season to be very promotional—a tremendous win for consumers.”
Consumers plan to shop in a variety of stores this year, but no particular format will see significant traffic gains from last year. Discounters can expect the most traffic (68 percent of consumers will choose this format, versus 70 percent in 2006), followed by department stores (58 percent, versus 62 percent last year). Other popular destinations include grocery stores (45 percent, versus 49 percent last year) and online (44 percent, versus 47 percent last year).
The Internet will once again play a crucial role for retailers this holiday season as consumers, on average, plan to do 30 percent of their shopping online, versus 29 percent in 2006.
The most sought-after category appears to be the most practical: gift cards. This year, more than half of consumers (54 percent) want to receive a gift card or gift certificate.
Although shoppers choose to buy in stores for a variety of reasons, two major factors will drive consumer traffic this holiday season: sales or price discounts (38 percent of shoppers) and everyday low prices (13 percent). Other factors such as merchandise selection (23 percent), product quality (13 percent) and customer service (5 percent) also will help retailers drive traffic.
The NRF 2007 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, which polled 7,837 consumers, was conducted Oct. 2-9. The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 1 percent. [December 2007 PET AGE]
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