Retail industry sales in 2010 will increase 2.5 percent over 2009 as positive signs in the housing and employment sectors bolster consumer confidence throughout the year, according to an economic forecast by the National Retail Federation (Washington).
“As we continue to see signs of improvement throughout the U.S. economy in 2010, overall sentiment will begin to lift, making way for slight increases in consumer spending,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist for NRF. “While we still expect shoppers to continue to be frugal with their discretionary spending, retailers will soon be able to reap the benefits of leaner, smarter inventories and a year and a half of pent-up consumer demand.”
Total retail industry sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, declined 2.5 percent in 2009. However, the NRF said, there was good news at the end of 2009, when retailers saw a holiday season of gains, not losses.
Retail industry sales for December rose 2.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year and fell 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted from November. Preliminary 2009 holiday sales, which combine the full months of November and December, rose 1.1 percent to $446.8 billion. Those results surpassed NRF’s projected decline of 1.0 percent.
“With an eye on managing inventory and maintaining lower price points, retailers did a tremendous job of planning for the holiday season,” said Wells. “While the consumer appears to be spending again, double-digit unemployment numbers will remain an impediment to maintaining this momentum.”
Post-holiday sales and gift cards encouraged consumers to open their wallets in January. According to NRF, January retail industry sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and decreased 0.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
January retail sales, including vehicles, gasoline stations and restaurants, increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted over December and 3.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year, according to figures released Feb. 12 by the U.S. Commerce Department. [April 2010 PET AGE]
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