Retail sales will be remain weak through at least the first half of 2009, as even high-end shoppers cut back, according to published reports and retail experts.
In projections released in January, the National Retail Federation (Washington) said retail industry sales in 2009—excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants—will decrease 0.5 percent from 2008. “Most of the consumer behavior we saw in 2008 will continue well into this year,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist for the NRF. “Shoppers will be seeking value and trading down to discount and off-price retailers in order to stretch their purchasing power.”

First half sales are expected to decline 2.5 percent, according to the NRF. However, there will be some improvement in the third quarter, with sales decreasing 1.1 percent. In the fourth quarter, sales are expected to improve 3.6 percent due to easy comparisons to last year as well as a strengthening economy.

In a survey conducted by Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. in November, 23 percent of pet stores surveyed said October sales were slightly below their expectations, while 29 percent said sales were well below their expectations. Nearly nine out of 10 (88 percent) blamed economic changes for their low sales.

In a similar survey focusing on vendors, Baird found that vendors of commodities such as litter and bedding and health care products were the most upbeat about sales. Suppliers of leashes, collars and harnesses reported relative weakness, according to the survey.

A separate survey conducted in early January by Unity Marketing (Stevens, Pa.) indicates that the nation’s richest shoppers are cutting back on luxury items.

Spending among affluent consumers decreased 6 percent from the third to the fourth quarter of 2008. “Specific changes they are making to their lifestyle according to our latest survey are reducing the times they dine out and shopping less frequently,” said Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing. “Affluent shoppers are showing a new frugality that may well become a habit once this recession ends.” [April 2009 PET AGE]