NRF Predicts Modest Retail Sales Growth
Sales for general merchandise, apparel, furniture, home furnishings,
electronics, appliances, sporting goods, hobby, book and music
stores will increase a scant 3.5 percent in 2005, according
to a new report by the National Retail Federation (Washington)
in January.
By contrast, sales for the same categories grew 6.7 percent
in 2004, the NRF said.
”Retailers are aware of the challenges they face in
2005,” said Tracy Mullin, president and chief executive
officer of the NRF. “With consumers under increased
financial pressure due to higher energy costs and slower wage
growth, it will be more difficult to match comparable sales
growth from the previous year.”
Even so, retail executives tail executives are looking at
2005 with growing optimism, according to NRF’s Retail
Executive Opinion Survey, which tracks essential business
metrics and helps identify trends in merchandising, hiring,
sales expectations, customer traffic and special seasonal-related
developments.
The January retail sector performance index posted a normal
reading of 50.3—1.6 points lower than the previous month
and 14.8 points lower than the year-ago period. The RSPI,
based on a 100-point scale, measures retail executives’
evaluations of monthly sales, customer traffic, average transaction
per customer, employment, inventories and a six-month-ahead
sales outlook expectation.
The January pricing index showed a slight uptick from the
previous month (25 points for January versus 22.9 points for
December), but was still well below the year-ago reading (41.7
points).
The demand outlook, a six-month outlook for sales, posted
an above-normal reading of 52.8—0.7 points higher than
the previous month but still 22.2 points lower than the year-ago
period.
With membership that comprises all retail formats and channels
of distribution, NRF represents an industry with more than
1.4 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 23 million
employees—about one in five American workers—and
2004 sales of $4.1 trillion. As the industry umbrella group,
it also represents more than 100 state, national and international
retail associations. [April 2005 PET AGE]
| MONTHLY RETAIL SALES |
| KIND
OF BUSINESS |
2005 |
2004 |
| |
January
(in billions) |
December
(in billions) |
November
(in billions) |
January
(in billions) |
| Total retail and food services |
$347.7 |
$348.8 |
$344.9 |
$324.4 |
Total, excluding motor
vehicles and parts
|
$268.5 |
$266.9 |
$266.1 |
$249.5 |
| Retail |
$313.7 |
$315.1 |
$311.6 |
$292.9 |
| Grocery stores |
$40.7 |
$40.4 |
$40.3 |
$38.8 |
Miscellaneous store
retailers
(including pet stores)
|
$9.6 |
$9.5 |
$9.5 |
$9.0 |
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
|
