You probably thought the 1990s were fast-paced and full of change, but you may find yourself playing a completely different ball game by 2010—characterized by new rules, new roles and new relationships, according to new report by Retail Forward Inc. (Columbus, Ohio).

Retailing will become a buyer’s market in which consumers will be more proactive and self-reliant, but also more pragmatic, according to the report. Consumers have become more somber about their economic prospects, thanks to the aftermath of recession, a still-turbulent stock market, and the continued risk of terrorism and other geopolitical uncertainties.

These events have conspired to produce the most uncertain business environment since the 1970s, an environment in which the world’s retailers and their suppliers will find it difficult to plan, the report indicates. Continued economic weakness in the United States, Europe and Japan will leave few places in which to find growth.

Compounding the challenges for retailers are increasingly inscrutable consumers who will be more difficult to understand and much less predictable. “Demographics will be less of a determinant. Life stage will be irrelevant. Lifestyles will be more idiosyncratic. Buying behavior will be more complex,” said Retail Forward analysts. Multidimensional consumers will shop in different ways based on a range of considerations that trigger store choice and purchase decisions.

By 2010, we’ll also see an evolution in how retailers create value for consumers and shareholders. According to the report, the efficiency era, which drove unprecedented industry consolidation and changed the face of retailing forever, is nearing its end. It will be replaced by the intelligent value chain era, in which smart technology and demand-based management optimization tools will enable the execution of tactical merchandising decisions based on real-world consumer demand.

Retail Forward predicts 20 trends will affect retailing over the remainder of this decade:

• No more one size fits all. Individual retailers will adopt a more robust portfolio approach to appeal to the multidimensional consumer mindset.
• Wal-Mart keeps smiling. While the world waits for Wal-Mart to collapse under its own weight, Wal-Mart will wait for no one.
• Supercenters keep rolling. Wal-Mart’s push into the grocery business is changing the way we shop, and the supercenter juggernaut will steamroll on.
• Surviving the supercenter. Conventional food, drug and mass formats are under attack, but there is still room to maneuver.
• Department store death spiral. Department stores are caught in a vicious circle propelled by escalating competition from mass retailers and lifestyle specialists. More consolidation and retrenchment are inevitable.
• Malls get mauled. Malls aren’t going away, but many will change almost beyond recognition.
• Re-concept rather than remodel. Compressed lifecycles for products, retail concepts and brands mean the days of the large, mass-merchandised specialty chain are over.
• Experience excels. Experiential retailing concepts will mix context and commerce as never before.
• E-commerce: more action than transaction. E-retailing’s impact will extend well beyond its contribution to retail sales, which will remain a relatively minor share of the total.
• Smart shopping. Consumers will embrace new technologies that give them better information and more control over the shopping process.
• Smart stores. Stores and store associates will get smarter as retailers adopt technologies to drive greater space and employee productivity. Over time, some smart store solutions will displace human resources with technology.
• M-commerce: more B2B than B2C. For the rest of this decade, the selling of products and services via mobile devices will remain largely elusive. In the next few years, wireless will focus primarily on business-to-business applications.
• Global land rush continues. Despite growing world tensions, the strong interest that businesses have in further liberalization of international borders will prevail, and the global land rush will become a global retail oligopoly.
• Retailers act like suppliers. As retailers grow and become more global, they will seek alternative sources of supply. By 2010, many suppliers will find their biggest competitors are their retail customers.
• Retailers as brand managers. Retailers will become brand managers on an unprecedented scale as the search for competitive differentiation accelerates. This decade means build your own brand or be gone.
• Brand sharing. Retailers will plug into each other’s shopper base and leverage location strength through innovative store-within-a-store, or brand-sharing, partnerships.
• Uber retailers. Over the course of the decade, retailers will find out just how far they can stretch their brands as they continue to transcend competitive boundaries.
• Suppliers act like retailers. Suppliers that survive the decade will become best-in-class category consultants as they take on an increasing number of activities that traditionally have been the responsibility of the retailer.
• Suppliers become retailers. As more suppliers get locked out of traditional retail channels, supplier direct-to-consumer will become a more viable scenario for the future.
• Consumers call the shots. In a buyer’s market, where technology is changing the dynamics of the buyer-seller interface, the relationship between retailers and consumers will become much more symmetrical and, if anything, tilt in favor of the consumer.

For the full “Twenty Trends for 2010: Retailing in an Age of Uncertainty” report, visit www.retailforward.com. [January 2005 PET AGE]